Robinhood’s retail customers have stepped back from the intense trading activity seen in late October, according to the company’s leadership.
The shift suggests a change in retail sentiment as markets head into 2026.
Stephanie Guild, Robinhood’s Chief Investment Officer, said customer participation remains elevated despite softer net buying.
She told CNBC that “net buying has trailed off a bit from our customer base from that sort of peak October 29th period.”
Expectations Reset for 2026
Guild outlined a more moderate outlook for markets in 2026.
She projected S&P 500 returns of around 8.7 percent.
That compares with the double-digit gains retail traders experienced through much of 2025.
The comments followed a record-breaking third quarter for the platform.
Robinhood processed 26.8 million funded accounts during the period.
Transaction revenue reached $730 million, up 129 percent year-over-year.
Crypto and Options Drove Growth
Cryptocurrency trading revenue surged more than 300 percent to $268 million in the quarter.
Options trading revenue climbed 50 percent to $304 million.
The results highlighted how retail investors leaned heavily into higher-risk products.
However, Guild warned that not all market segments look equally compelling going forward.
Technology Stocks Face Scrutiny
Guild expressed skepticism about lofty expectations for technology stocks.
Wall Street expects tech earnings to grow 27 percent in 2026.
That compares with a historical average of 12 percent since 2011.
She suggested the artificial intelligence boom is becoming commoditized.
She referenced new large language models “named after fruits and vegetables” that lack clear revenue impact.
“I really think that’s going to start to be a commodity,” Guild said.
“It will start to be like, where is the rubber meets the road and where is it actually improving efficiencies.”
Prediction Markets Gain Momentum
Despite caution on tech, Robinhood’s prediction markets continue to scale rapidly.
The platform has traded more than 9 billion prediction market contracts since March.
More than 1 million users have engaged with the product.
Sports-linked contracts have become a meaningful new revenue stream.
This diversification has helped offset softer activity in traditional trading.
China Emerges as a Key Bet
Guild highlighted Chinese technology stocks as an attractive opportunity for 2026.
She described valuations as “pretty inexpensive” relative to U.S. peers.
She also pointed to open-source AI models developed in China.
These models could appeal to companies unable to afford premium alternatives.
Her optimism contrasted with a more cautious view on Europe.
She noted that roughly half of Europe’s 2025 returns came from euro appreciation.
That currency tailwind, she suggested, has largely played out.
Expansion Strategy Supports Growth
Robinhood continues to expand beyond equities and options trading.
The company acquired MIAXdx to reduce reliance on Kalshi in prediction markets.
A CFTC-licensed launch is targeted for 2026.
Prediction markets have also moved to 24/7 trading access.
CEO Vlad Tenev has called tokenization “the biggest innovation in capital markets” in over a decade.
Robinhood plans to allow users to pledge Apple shares as crypto loan collateral.
The roadmap includes a shift toward fully permissionless equity trading.
Robinhood shares rose more than 200 percent in 2025.
Platform assets reached $333 billion in the third quarter, up 119 percent year-over-year.
Gold subscriptions nearly doubled to 3.9 million, supporting record cash and margin balances.
