AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) is closing in on a major milestone, with its commercial satellite broadband service now targeted for launch in early 2027.
The company has taken a fundamentally different approach to the satellite broadband market compared to its biggest rival, Space Exploration Technologies’ (NASDAQ: SPCX) Starlink service.
While Starlink built a direct-to-consumer model largely from scratch, AST SpaceMobile has pursued an aggressive partnership strategy with existing cellphone carriers.
Starlink is the most profitable business unit within SpaceX, as the company’s IPO prospectus revealed, giving AST SpaceMobile a well-funded and established competitor to contend with.
AST SpaceMobile has secured deals with carriers including AT&T (NYSE: T) and Verizon (NYSE: VZ), giving it both funding support and a ready-made customer base from day one.
Customers of those carriers will be able to add AST SpaceMobile’s satellite service to their existing plans once the commercial rollout begins, a significant built-in distribution advantage.
In the first quarter of 2026, AST SpaceMobile generated revenues of around $15 million, with the majority coming from contracts with the U.S. government.
Despite those modest current revenues, the company believes it can generate up to $1 billion in annual revenue in 2027 following its commercial service launch.
That would represent an extraordinary ramp-up, and strong execution will be vital as the company still needs to build and launch additional satellites to fully support its service.
The stock is currently sitting in the middle of a nearly 60% drawdown, reflecting investor skepticism about the timeline and the company’s ability to deliver on its ambitious targets.
As a money-losing start-up, that level of volatility is not unusual, and most investors may want to wait until the service is actually live before committing capital.
More aggressive investors, however, may view the current dip as an opportunity to get into a business that could hit the ground running given its partnership-based model.
The partnership approach means AST SpaceMobile avoids the costly challenge of building a consumer brand and distribution network from the ground up, a key structural advantage.
Proof of that model’s strength will only come once the service launches and begins converting carrier customers into paying satellite broadband subscribers at scale.
