Greggs (LSE: GRG) has endured a punishing stretch, with its share price sliding from around 2,800p in 2025 to just over 1,600p today.
That steep decline reflects a combination of weaker consumer confidence, rising costs, and concerns about possible over-expansion during a cooling UK economy.
Despite the turbulent run, most professional analysts are not abandoning the stock entirely, leaning instead toward a gradual recovery rather than permanent decline.
Across 15 analysts reviewed, there are seven Buy ratings, five Hold ratings, and four Sell ratings, producing an overall Neutral consensus on the bakery chain.
The average 12-month price target among those brokers sits at 1,700p, representing only about 6% upside from the current trading level.
Some prominent institutional names remain notably bullish, with JP Morgan, Barclays, and UBS all recently reiterating positive views and setting targets in a range of roughly 1,910p to 2,200p.
JP Morgan called Greggs a “structural winner,” pointing to strong unit economics and high sales per square foot, arguing the share price decline is excessive relative to modest earnings forecast slippage.
RBC Capital has given the stock an Outperform rating, projecting roughly 11% organic growth annually, supported by a seven-year expansion plan and the potential for increased cash returns as costs ease.
However, those optimistic forecasts depend heavily on sales and margins actually improving, leaving considerable uncertainty if trading conditions fail to cooperate.
On the bearish side, weaker consumer demand remains the most pressing concern, with management describing the 2026 outlook as “cautious but hopeful” amid pressure from higher living costs.
Jefferies recently cut its rating on Greggs from Buy to Hold, dropping its price target sharply from 2,500p to 1,610p citing worries about the rising popularity of GLP-1 weight-loss medicines.
The bank fears that appetite-suppressing drugs will hurt sales at bakery chains like Greggs, weighing on medium-term growth prospects for the business.
Chief executive Roisin Currie has acknowledged the impact, saying there is “no doubt” that appetite-suppressing medication is affecting the business, with more customers now seeking smaller portions and healthier options.
Greggs is adapting its menu in response, though it remains unclear how far the weight-loss drug trend will ultimately run or how significantly it will reshape consumer habits.
For longer-term investors, the depressed price does carry some appeal, with a 4.3% dividend yield providing income even if the share price stays flat for an extended period.
The stock is currently trading at a significant discount to estimated fair value, which may attract patient investors willing to wait out a prolonged recovery.
However, if earnings fail to recover in the near term, the share price could face additional downward pressure before any meaningful rebound materialises.
At current valuations, the market appears to be pricing in a slow and grinding comeback rather than any swift reversal of Greggs’ recent fortunes.
The central question for investors is whether locking up capital for a potential multi-year recovery is the most efficient use of funds given competing opportunities elsewhere on the UK market.
For those already holding the stock, maintaining a position may be reasonable, but the risk-reward balance makes adding fresh capital a less straightforward decision at this stage.
