Rocket Lab USA (NASDAQ: RKLB) heads into its August 10 earnings report with shares down more than 13% so far this year despite broad enthusiasm for space sector stocks.
The decline comes even as SpaceX completed its IPO on June 12 under the ticker SPCX, which generated significant investor excitement across the space industry.
Rocket Lab reported Q4 2025 revenue of $180 million, a 36% year-over-year increase, but its stock fell after the company disclosed a delay to its Neutron rocket program.
The medium-lift reusable Neutron rocket suffered a tank failure during testing in early January, pushing its expected launch date further into 2026.
Momentum shifted in the first quarter of 2026, when Rocket Lab reported revenue of $200.3 million, up 63.5% year over year, sending shares surging 34% after the earnings release.
The company’s EPS loss narrowed to $0.07 in Q1 2026, improving from a loss of $0.12 in the same quarter of the prior year, signaling a gradual path toward profitability.
Investors heading into the Q2 report are watching closely for any Neutron commercial launch contract bookings or a confirmed timeline for the rocket’s first hot-fire test.
The Neutron rocket is critical because each launch is projected to fetch between $50 million and $100 million, compared to the $7.5 million to $8.5 million generated per Electron launch.
Neutron is designed to carry payloads of up to 13,000 kilograms, a major step up from the Electron rocket’s roughly 300-kilogram capacity, putting it in direct competition with SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Relativity Space’s Terran R.
Delays to Neutron risk ceding ground to those competitors in the growing medium-lift launch market, which is where much of the industry’s future revenue opportunity lies.
On July 27, Rocket Lab announced its largest launch contract to date, a $266 million multi-launch deal with the U.S. Space Force covering 12 suborbital launches with as many as six additional missions.
The contract leverages Rocket Lab’s HASTE vehicle, which stands for Hypersonic Accelerator Suborbital Test Electron, and carries higher average selling prices and stronger profit margins than standard commercial Electron launches.
Rocket Lab is also in the process of acquiring Iridium in an $8 billion deal that would transform the company into a vertically integrated space operator owning and operating a major low-Earth-orbit satellite network.
Iridium provides global voice, data, and positioning, navigation, and timing satellite services, adding an operational layer that extends well beyond Rocket Lab’s current launch and components business.
Despite those catalysts, the stock carries meaningful risk, trading at around 49 times trailing sales even after its year-to-date decline, leaving little margin for error if Neutron news disappoints again.
