Elon Musk took to X last month to warn short-sellers betting against Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) that their “survival probability” is “very low.”
SpaceX’s first quarterly report appeared to back him up, with revenue rising 92% year over year and Starlink subscriptions doubling during the period.
Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization nearly tripled, giving bullish investors plenty of ammunition to celebrate the company’s rapid growth trajectory.
But a closer look at three specific numbers from that earnings report reveals serious structural concerns that short-sellers may be right to seize upon.
The most alarming figure is SpaceX’s free cash flow, which came in at roughly negative $25 billion across just the first six months of 2026.
The company generated $3.5 billion in operating cash flow but spent $28.5 billion in capital expenditures, with another $3.9 billion financed rather than paid directly in cash.
That level of spending places enormous pressure on SpaceX’s investments to deliver returns quickly, and questions remain about whether its heavy AI spending will pay off at all.
A single unnamed customer accounted for 19.5% of SpaceX’s entire Q2 revenue, representing the lion’s share of its AI revenue, and is widely believed to be Anthropic, the maker of Claude.
The arrangement, which allows either side to cancel with just 90 days’ notice after an initial ramping period, is a fragile foundation for the $23.6 billion in AI capital expenditures SpaceX committed during the period.
Musk himself previously clarified that one heavily promoted lease was initially structured for just 180 days, highlighting how loosely these agreements can be constructed.
Starlink remains SpaceX’s strongest business unit, generating $4.3 billion in Q2 revenue and $1.7 billion in operating income, but average revenue per user has been quietly eroding.
Average revenue per user came in at $66 per month in the most recent quarter, down sharply from $85 a year earlier, a decline that subscriber growth is currently masking but may not always offset.
As Starlink penetrates more developed markets and growth slows, the falling revenue per user figure could become an increasingly serious drag on the business.
Adding further pressure to the stock, nearly $6 billion worth of shares held by early SpaceX investors and employees are set to be unlocked and available for sale on public markets within the next year.
Even a small fraction of those insiders choosing to sell could meaningfully weigh on the share price at a time when the stock already faces valuation questions.
