Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) has climbed 11.5% so far in 2026, though it continues to lag behind the S&P 500’s stronger 13.7% return over the same period.
That short-term gap may seem discouraging at first glance, but analysts and long-term investors argue the comparison misses the broader picture entirely.
Costco is widely regarded as a recession-resistant business, not because it is immune to economic downturns, but because its bulk-retail model keeps customers loyal even in difficult times.
The company’s North American membership renewal rate stands at a remarkably strong 92.2%, reflecting just how deeply embedded Costco is in its customers’ everyday spending habits.
Selling everyday necessities in large quantities gives the warehouse retailer a natural edge when household budgets tighten and consumers look to stretch their dollars further.
Beyond its core business strength, Costco also pays a quarterly dividend, though the yield sits on the modest side at 0.6%, still providing a reliable income stream for shareholders.
The company also issues special one-time dividends periodically, with the most recent special dividend paid out in 2024 at $15 per share, adding a meaningful boost to total returns.
Costco is set to report its fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter earnings on September 26, a result that could push the stock, currently trading around $961 per share, toward $1,000 or pull it back toward $900.
The longer the holding period, the stronger Costco’s track record becomes, with a five-year total return of 115% comfortably outpacing the S&P 500’s 87% over the same stretch.
Over a ten-year window, Costco’s total return reaches 573%, compared to 321% for the S&P 500, underlining just how significantly the stock rewards patient, long-term investors.
That historical outperformance makes it harder to dismiss the stock simply because it has trailed the broader index by a few percentage points in the short term this year.
With a dependable revenue base, a recurring dividend, periodic special payouts, and a loyal membership base, Costco continues to present a credible case for investors willing to think in years rather than months.
