SpaceX, formally known as Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), went public on June 12 and quickly surged to a peak of $225.64 per share.
The stock has since fallen dramatically, trading around $146 as of Monday afternoon, which puts it 35% below its peak and under its first-day opening price.
Elon Musk has publicly floated the possibility of SpaceX generating $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, a figure that would be unprecedented in corporate history.
Analysts and investors see a potential $28.5 trillion total addressable market spread across the company’s three core businesses: space transportation, satellite internet, and artificial intelligence.
SpaceX currently commands a 90% global market share in commercial rocket launches, with its Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets lifting around 2,500 tons of payloads into orbit each year.
The company’s Starlink satellite internet service now serves 12 million paying customers globally, supported by a constellation of over 10,200 satellites, with next-generation V3 satellites set to launch later this year.
SpaceX acquired fellow Musk-owned company xAI earlier this year, along with a series of data centers including Colossus and Colossus II, positioning itself aggressively in the AI infrastructure market.
Clients such as Anthropic, Alphabet, and Reflection AI have already signed deals to rent computing capacity from SpaceX, giving the company early commercial traction in a market it sees as a $26.5 trillion opportunity.
SpaceX reported $7.8 billion in revenue for the second quarter, a 92% jump year over year, with the AI segment growing the fastest at 247% to reach $2.6 billion.
Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen has suggested the AI business could hit an annual revenue run rate of $100 billion by the end of 2026, reflecting strong demand from developers across the industry.
Despite that growth, SpaceX’s trailing-12-month revenue of $23 billion translates into a price-to-sales ratio of 83 based on its $1.9 trillion market capitalization, which is 13 times higher than the Nasdaq-100’s P/S ratio of 6.3.
Wall Street analysts are more conservative than Johnsen on the AI revenue target, with the average forecast sitting at around $98 billion in total revenue for 2027, according to Yahoo! Finance.
Even using that forward estimate, SpaceX would carry a forward P/S ratio of more than 19, implying a potential 67% decline would be needed just to bring it in line with the Nasdaq-100 valuation.
The company’s new Starmind satellite, which uses a variant of Nvidia’s Vera Rubin systems, aims to deliver solar-powered AI infrastructure from orbit, beaming data back to Earth through the existing Starlink network.
While SpaceX carries genuine long-term promise across all three of its major business lines, the combination of high valuation and near-term execution risk suggests the stock could fall below $100 within the next year.
