Iraq is pushing to more than double its oil output to between 8 million and 10 million barrels per day within the next six years.
The country recently sent a delegation to Saudi Arabia to secure a higher production quota from OPEC, signaling serious intent behind the ambitious expansion plan.
Before the war with Iran disrupted regional oil flows, Iraq was producing approximately 4 million barrels per day, making the new targets a dramatic leap forward.
Chevron (NYSE: CVX) sits at the center of this ambition after signing memorandums of understanding with the Iraqi government to enter two significant oil fields in the country.
The first agreement would give Chevron operational control of West Qurna 2, one of the world’s largest oil fields, which currently produces 460,000 barrels per day.
West Qurna 2 accounts for nearly 10% of Iraq’s total oil output and 0.5% of global supply, and the field holds an estimated 13 billion barrels of oil.
Iraq nationalized the field earlier this year following U.S. sanctions on its previous operator, Russia’s Lukoil, opening the door for Chevron to step in.
Iraq has stated it wants to boost production at West Qurna 2 to between 750,000 and 800,000 barrels per day once Chevron assumes operational control of the site.
Chevron’s second deal involves the Nassiriya project, which Chevron initially agreed to in principle in 2025 and includes four exploration blocks alongside producing field development.
Iraq is targeting an initial production capacity of 600,000 barrels per day for Nassiriya within seven years of work beginning, pointing to significant long-term growth potential.
Chevron is not alone in moving into Iraq, as TotalEnergies and BP have also recently signed new deals with the country to develop its vast petroleum resources.
ConocoPhillips also bought an interest in BP Energy Company of Kirkuk to support redevelopment of four large-scale producing fields in the Kirkuk region of Northern Iraq.
These deals reflect a broader push by major global oil companies to gain a foothold in one of the world’s most resource-rich oil-producing nations.
Iraq’s output situation carries notable risk, as production plunged to just 1.4 million barrels per day after Iran retaliated against military strikes by attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Chevron is simultaneously evaluating bypass pipeline options, with a new pipeline through Syria estimated to cost at least $15 billion and likely take four years to build.
Even if constructed, the proposed Syria pipeline would likely lack enough initial capacity to handle all of Iraq’s production, particularly at double its pre-war level.
That reality leaves Chevron with meaningful exposure to future disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz, which Iraq currently relies on almost entirely to export its oil.
Rebuilding an old pipeline system damaged by previous wars was considered but no longer appears plausible, narrowing the available infrastructure solutions considerably.
Despite these risks, Chevron’s broad global production base provides a cushion, and securing two potentially world-class resources represents a rare opportunity for the oil giant.
Analysts view the Iraq deals as a high-risk, high-reward move that could add a major long-term growth driver to Chevron’s already formidable global portfolio.
