One investor who passed on Greggs shares in favour of Goodwin has watched that bet deliver a remarkable 505% return over five years.
Greggs, the FTSE 250 bakery chain, is drawing renewed attention after a turbulent period left its shares trading at considerably lower valuations than their 2024 peak.
The bakery giant’s shares are up 17% over the past year, yet still sit some 37% below where they stood five years ago, a sobering reminder of just how far they fell.
At its peak in 2024, Greggs traded on a price-to-earnings ratio of around 23, a valuation many considered stretched given the inherent limits of a predominantly UK-focused retail food business.
Today the P/E ratio sits at approximately 15.5, with a trailing dividend yield of 3.8%, making the shares appear far more reasonable than they did at the height of investor enthusiasm.
The business itself continues to perform well operationally, with first-half 2026 sales rising 7.2% to £1.1bn and underlying pre-tax profit jumping 19.7% to £76m, demonstrating genuine underlying strength.
Greggs is also adapting its offer to attract younger consumers, expanding into protein salads and fashionable drinks while continuing to open new store locations across the UK.
The fundamental concern, however, remains that Greggs is overwhelmingly a domestic story, with limited runway for international expansion and finite suitable sites available across Britain.
Goodwin, a family-run FTSE 250 engineering company, presents a very different growth profile, with almost three-quarters of its revenues generated from overseas markets.
The company operates across defence, civil aviation, oil, gas and nuclear sectors, giving it broad exposure to some of the most structurally supported industries in the global economy.
Goodwin shares have climbed 95% in just the past year alone, adding to that extraordinary five-year gain that has now exceeded 500% for long-term shareholders.
The stock did experience sharp volatility earlier in 2026, falling after the company lost two major defence-related contract tenders amid uncertainty following the Iran conflict.
That pullback was viewed by at least one investor as an opportunity, with Harvey Jones disclosing he used dips in Goodwin’s share price to add the stock to his SIPP during the period of weakness.
Goodwin’s valuation, once a sticking point with the P/E ratio soaring above 50 at its peak, has now moderated to a more accessible level of around 25 times earnings.
For a business with Goodwin’s global reach, its history of long-term growth and its exposure to the expanding global defence industry, that multiple may represent a genuine opportunity for patient investors.
Contract wins and project timelines can cause Goodwin’s profits to fluctuate from period to period, meaning shareholders need a tolerance for short-term share price volatility.
The long-term thesis, though, remains intact, and the contrasting stories of Greggs and Goodwin illustrate how different definitions of a growth stock can deliver wildly different outcomes over a five-year horizon.
