Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) completed the largest IPO in history in June, opening its first day of trading at $150 per share.
Since listing, the stock has swung dramatically, surging as high as $225.64 while also slumping to a low of $104.83 in the months that followed.
Despite the volatility, SpaceX remains one of the most closely watched growth stocks on the market, driven by its position as both a space and AI company led by Elon Musk.
SpaceX reported revenue of $7.8 billion in the second quarter, representing a 92% year-over-year increase that has fueled strong investor optimism.
Wall Street’s consensus estimate for SpaceX’s full 2026 revenue stands at $44.6 billion, which would represent a 139% increase compared to 2025.
The company’s connectivity segment, primarily the Starlink satellite broadband service, is currently its largest revenue driver, with Starlink doubling its subscriber count to 12 million in Q2.
Goldman Sachs forecasts that SpaceX’s revenue could reach $474 billion by 2030, with $322 billion of that figure coming from the AI business segment.
SpaceX also accounted for roughly 80% of the United States’ commercial rocket launches in 2025, according to statistics from the Federal Aviation Administration, cementing its dominance in space.
The company carries a market cap of $2.0 trillion as of September 10, trading at approximately 45 times its projected 2026 revenue, a multiple that can compress sharply during bear markets.
Heavy investment in AI infrastructure represents a significant risk factor, as SpaceX would be particularly exposed if fears about an AI sector bubble were to materialise and trigger a broader market downturn.
If SpaceX achieves the Goldman Sachs revenue forecast of $474 billion by 2030 and maintains a 45 times sales multiple, its market cap would theoretically reach $21.3 trillion, turning a $10,000 investment into roughly $106,650.
A more realistic optimistic scenario places SpaceX’s market cap at around $5 trillion by 2030, which would turn a $10,000 investment today into approximately $25,000.
On the downside, a bear market could cut SpaceX’s value in half or worse, making the current risk-reward balance a key consideration for potential investors evaluating the stock.
