Greggs (LSE: GRG) has come a long way since listing on the London Stock Exchange in 1984 with a market capitalisation of just £15m and around 260 shops.
Today, the iconic British bakery chain commands a valuation of £2.1bn and operates 2,796 shops across the United Kingdom, making it one of retail’s most recognisable names.
The company entered the FTSE 250 in 2014 and has continued to expand its footprint steadily, cementing its status as a genuine high-street institution.
Greggs is planning around 100 to 110 net new shop openings this year, while two new national distribution centres will increase capacity to serve at least 3,500 shops.
If Greggs maintains that pace of roughly 100 net openings per year, it will cross the 3,500-shop threshold sometime in late 2033.
The stock has had a turbulent run, declining 31% over the past five years as higher staffing costs, summer heatwaves, and the cost-of-living crisis all took their toll on performance.
In the 13 weeks to 27 September 2025, like-for-like sales growth in company-managed shops slowed to just 1.5%, raising questions about whether the Greggs growth story had run its course.
However, sentiment has shifted considerably, with like-for-like sales rising 3.4% in the 13 weeks to 26 September 2026, supported by more settled weather and new products including Matcha drinks and the Steak and Stilton Bake.
That improved trading has helped the share price climb 22% year to date, reassuring investors that the brand still has genuine room to grow.
Greggs is no longer purely a high-street play, expanding into airports, train stations, motorway service plazas, petrol station forecourts, supermarkets, and retail parks to reach customers wherever they are.
The company is also opening more stores with extended evening hours and growing its presence on delivery platforms including Just Eat and Uber Eats to capture additional sales occasions.
Greggs has moved into frozen goods sold through Tesco and Iceland, while a new franchised outlet at Tenerife airport has reportedly started off strongly.
Approximately 23% of Greggs shops are franchised units, a structure that reduces the company’s exposure to day-to-day operational costs while these locations tend to outperform company-managed sites.
The company is also trialling Greggs Express self-service automated units, with 12 installations expected to be operational by the end of the year, pointing to further innovation in its retail model.
Investment in the two new national distribution centres has weighed on cash flows in recent years, but both are expected to be fully operational by the end of 2027.
Once that infrastructure is in place, cash generation is expected to improve significantly, which could support higher dividends on top of the current yield of 3.4% and potentially share buybacks.
The current valuation does not appear particularly demanding for a business with a credible long-term expansion plan and a strengthening balance of growth levers across formats and channels.
For investors willing to look past the near-term inflationary pressures, Greggs presents a case worth examining as its growth ambitions and operational improvements begin to align.
