Iranian oil and condensate exports have plunged to their lowest levels in at least six years, falling below 300,000 barrels per day in May amid a sweeping U.S. naval blockade.
Data from energy analytics firm Vortexa shows May exports averaged approximately 209,000 barrels per day, a dramatic fall from 1.34 million barrels per day recorded in April.
The collapse is even more stark when compared to March, when Iranian exports averaged nearly 1.9 million barrels per day before the blockade began to take full effect.
The U.S. naval blockade targeting vessels entering or departing Iranian ports was first implemented on April 13, rapidly reshaping oil flows across the Middle East.
Vortexa analyst Claire Jungman described the forces at work: “The key drivers appear to be the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. naval blockade targeting vessels entering or departing Iranian ports, and the broader unwillingness of owners, operators, insurers, and counterparties to expose vessels and crews to the current security environment.”
Vortexa noted that the May figures match the lowest export levels seen during late 2019 and early 2020, when former President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran was at its height.
A separate analysis from energy data firm Kpler placed May exports slightly higher at 260,000 barrels per day, though it similarly identified the figures as a six-year low.
Kpler analyst Homayoun Falakshahi warned that if the blockade persists for another two months, Iran could effectively exhaust its available oil supply destined for China, its largest buyer.
China’s imports of Iranian crude fell to 1.10 million barrels per day in May, the lowest level recorded since January 2025, according to Kpler data.
Kpler also reported that roughly 67 million barrels of Iranian crude and condensate remain stranded inside the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, out of approximately 147 million barrels held in floating storage.
FGE NexantECA analyst Iman Nasseri offered a somewhat lower estimate, placing the volume of Iranian crude trapped behind the blockade line at around 55 million barrels.
At a conservative price of $90 per barrel, Iran’s exports of 300,000 barrels per day would generate approximately $27 million in daily revenue, or roughly $837 million across the full month of May.
That figure represents a dramatic reversal from March, when Iran was earning an estimated $165.6 million per day, or about $5.13 billion over the course of that month, according to Lloyd’s List.
April revenues were estimated at roughly $120.6 million per day, or approximately $3.62 billion for the month, meaning May oil revenues were around 84 percent lower than those recorded in March.
The Central Bank of Iran has reported that oil revenues account for roughly 65 percent of the country’s total exports, leaving the economy deeply exposed to any sustained disruption in hydrocarbon sales.
Kpler noted that curtailing production carries higher operating costs, and since Iran depends heavily on imports of grain, corn, and rice, reduced import capacity is expected to fuel rising domestic inflation.
The blockade has also choked exports from neighboring Gulf states, with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates all facing disruptions tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Analysts have framed the standoff as a test of economic endurance, with higher energy prices and growing global supply constraints adding pressure well beyond Iran’s borders.
