SpaceX is preparing for a highly anticipated IPO, reportedly targeting a valuation of $1.77 trillion and raising as much as $75 billion in new capital.
The company’s recently published IPO prospectus outlines an extraordinarily ambitious growth vision centered on a $28.5 trillion total addressable market across multiple sectors.
Of that staggering figure, $26.5 trillion is attributed entirely to artificial intelligence opportunities, dwarfing every other segment in the company’s growth projections.
The AI breakdown includes $2.4 trillion in AI infrastructure, $760 billion in consumer subscriptions, $600 billion in digital advertising, and $22.7 trillion in enterprise applications.
The remaining addressable market consists of $370 billion in space-enabled solutions and $1.6 trillion in connectivity through Starlink Broadband and Starlink Mobile services.
SpaceX is expected to aggressively invest in its Grok AI engine, scale terrestrial data center capacity, and pursue the development of so-called orbital data centers placed in space.
Not every analyst shares the company’s enthusiasm, however, with Morningstar (MORN) valuing SpaceX at approximately $780 billion, less than half of the company’s top-end valuation range.
“[L]ong-term investors eager to participate in SpaceX’s future endeavors and potential success will have opportunities to do so with a greater margin of safety than the initial offering is likely to provide,” one of Morningstar’s analysts warns.
Morningstar analysts also expressed doubt about the company’s AI division, concluding that “we don’t see Grok as one of the leading AI labs today.”
The AI division carries notable risk beyond brand recognition, as the segment remains unprofitable while competition intensifies among other well-funded major technology firms.
Morningstar’s position is that SpaceX is compelling as a business but not necessarily attractive as an investment at an initial valuation between $1 trillion and $2 trillion.
IPO-stage volatility is widely expected once shares become publicly available, a pattern common to high-profile listings of this scale and market attention.
Despite the debate over valuation, the company’s strategic direction over the next five years appears clear based on its own disclosures and prospectus language.
SpaceX’s stated ambition is to become the dominant AI company on the planet by 2031, with virtually every major capital deployment decision oriented toward that goal.
