Greggs PLC (LSE:GRG) could face another difficult summer trading period as the UK’s prolonged heatwave dampens demand for its popular hot products, according to analysts at Jefferies.
The FTSE 250-listed bakery chain is scheduled to report interim results on 29 July, with the broker still expecting solid first-half profits despite the emerging headwinds.
Greggs implemented a 4% price increase at the start of the year, which Jefferies says has left its pricing position in a relatively strong place heading into results season.
Analyst Andrew Wade estimates the company’s price inflation is broadly in line with the wider market, helping to underpin margins while keeping the brand competitive against rivals.
However, unusually hot weather has surfaced as a fresh concern for the business, which relies heavily on sales of hot pastries, sausage rolls, steak bakes, and pizzas.
Wade noted that Greggs was forced to cut guidance last July after high temperatures reduced demand for those core hot products, raising the prospect of a repeat this summer.
While Wade stopped short of forecasting another profit warning, he said he believes recent trading has softened and that the prospect of a weather-driven summer boost has diminished considerably.
Beyond the weather, Jefferies also questioned whether Greggs’ slower like-for-like sales growth reflects deeper structural pressures rather than simply weak consumer confidence or subdued retail footfall.
Management has pointed to cautious consumer spending and weaker footfall as the primary reasons for softer sales, but Wade raised a more pointed concern about the rising use of weight-loss drugs.
Wade argued that “the same symptoms could reflect the growing uptake of GLP-1s – evidence shows that the drugs most impact users’ desire for high-fat, calorie-dense snacking – and we have concerns that this could represent an enduring headwind for certain food-to-go operators, including Greggs.”
The GLP-1 argument adds a longer-term dimension to what might otherwise be dismissed as a temporary weather-related trading dip for the bakery chain.
Jefferies maintained its ‘hold’ rating on Greggs shares alongside a 1,610p price target, reflecting a balanced view on the company’s prospects in the near and medium term.
The broker acknowledged that Greggs remains well positioned over the long term, with a strong store estate and recognisable brand continuing to underpin its competitive standing in the food-to-go market.
Nevertheless, the combination of hot weather, cautious consumers, and the potential structural shift driven by GLP-1 adoption presents a more challenging backdrop than the company faced at the start of 2026.
