Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) has shed nearly $1 trillion in notional value since its stock peaked in the days immediately following its IPO.
The stock, widely known as SpaceX, was trading near its initial public offering price of $135, sitting around $133 as of July 16, 2026.
Raymond James, which co-managed the IPO, recently set a bold $800 price target on the stock, implying roughly 480% upside from current levels.
Even the average analyst price target of around $244 implies approximately 83% upside, suggesting Wall Street sees meaningful room for gains.
However, reaching millionaire status on SpaceX alone would require an investment of roughly $166,250 at today’s price, even if the $800 target were reached.
That is a steep entry point, especially for a stock that still trades at around 100 times sales, making the risk-to-reward calculus complicated for most retail investors.
SpaceX’s operational track record is genuinely impressive, with the company claiming it has launched more than 80% of the global mass that went into orbit annually since 2023.
Its Falcon 9 missions achieved a 99% success rate across 165 launches in 2025, and SpaceX operates around 10,000 of the roughly 15,000 active satellites currently in orbit.
Starlink subscribers jumped from approximately 5 million in the first quarter of 2025 to around 10.3 million a year later, with service now spanning about 164 countries and territories.
Artificial intelligence represents the company’s largest identified opportunity, estimated at about $26.5 trillion, but SpaceX invested almost $18 billion on AI development in 2025 alone.
That AI spending equated to roughly 96% of the company’s $18.7 billion in revenue for the year, making the division a substantial cash drag on overall financials.
Goldman Sachs analysts project SpaceX’s AI business could generate $322 billion in revenue by 2030, while Morgan Stanley forecasts around $190 billion from AI in the same timeframe.
Morgan Stanley has also projected the company’s total revenue reaching $3.4 trillion by 2040, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 41%.
In the most bullish scenario, if SpaceX traded at five times sales on $3.4 trillion in revenue, the resulting $17 trillion valuation could push the stock to around $1,300 per share.
Despite those projections, the market already prices in enormous expectations for SpaceX, meaning any setback or disappointing news could send shares sharply lower.
That underlying volatility remains a key reason analysts and observers urge caution, even as the long-term revenue story continues to attract significant attention from major Wall Street firms.
