Prediction markets now give Anthropic a 63% chance of surpassing SpaceX as 2026’s largest IPO by market capitalisation, a dramatic shift in sentiment.
Just four weeks ago, traders on Polymarket assigned almost no probability to Anthropic unseating SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) from that top position.
SpaceX set a historic benchmark when it raised $85.7 billion from its public debut, including the underwriters’ overallotment, nearly tripling the previous record for an IPO cash raise.
SpaceX priced approximately 555.6 million shares at $135 each, giving the company a valuation of $1.77 trillion at the time of its market debut.
The catalyst behind Anthropic’s rising odds is a staggering surge in sales, with the Claude large language model developer seeing its annual run rate revenue catapult from around $9 billion at the end of 2025 to $65 billion by the end of July, according to Bloomberg.
Anthropic counts high-profile recurring clients including Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) among its customer base, adding further credibility to its growth story.
The AI start-up is also backed by Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL), whose stakes in Anthropic total approximately 21% and 14%, respectively.
Anthropic may target a valuation of up to $2 trillion for its IPO, which would comfortably eclipse SpaceX’s landmark debut and rewrite Wall Street’s record books.
Despite the excitement, analysts warn that justifying such a stratospheric valuation will be an enormous challenge, especially given that history shows no company has sustained a price-to-sales ratio above 30 over an extended period.
Even based on its current annual run rate sales, Anthropic would fall firmly into what historical data characterises as bubble territory, raising serious questions for retail investors considering chasing the debut.
We’ve yet to see any game-changing technology over the last three decades avoid an early stage bubble-bursting event, with investors consistently overestimating the pace of adoption and optimisation of new technologies.
While spending on AI infrastructure is off the charts, businesses are likely several years away from fully optimising AI solutions, which adds further uncertainty to lofty valuations in the sector.
Data gathered by Truist Financial offers a sobering warning for retail investors, showing the average year-one maximum drawdown for the 30 hottest tech-driven IPOs over the last 14 years stands at 55%.
SpaceX itself has already recorded a peak-to-trough drawdown of 54% from its post-debut high, underscoring just how quickly IPO euphoria can evaporate in the market.
Retail investor buzz surrounding major IPOs rarely lasts more than a few weeks, and prediction market enthusiasm alone is not a sound basis for an investment decision.
Even if Anthropic does proceed with a record-breaking IPO, seasoned market observers suggest retail investors would be wise to keep their distance from the initial frenzy.
