Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) is emerging as one of the most closely watched speculative growth stocks in the electric aviation sector right now.
The company builds electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft, commonly known as eVTOL, a category of aircraft that has yet to receive commercial operating approval in the United States.
If eVTOL aircraft do earn regulatory clearance, the implications for urban transportation could be significant, transforming daily commutes and reshaping city skylines with quiet, electric, drone-like vehicles.
Morgan Stanley once predicted the total addressable market for eVTOL aircraft could reach a trillion dollars by 2050, a figure that underscores the enormous opportunity at stake.
Joby currently leads the industry in several key respects, having logged more than 50,000 flight miles and advancing its aircraft to the fifth and final stage of FAA type certification.
The company also earns revenue through its passenger helicopter business, Blade, giving it a commercial foothold while its primary eVTOL product awaits full regulatory approval.
Joby is additionally working with Toyota (NYSE: TM) to develop the manufacturing infrastructure needed to produce air taxis at industrial scale, a partnership that could prove critical to long-term growth.
At the time of writing, Joby carried a market cap of roughly $6.4 billion, meaning a tenfold gain would push that figure to approximately $64 billion.
Reaching that valuation would require around $14 billion in annual revenue, assuming a price-to-earnings multiple of 30 and net margins of 15%, according to the analysis.
If each Joby eVTOL aircraft generated $2 million annually, the company would need a fleet of 7,500 aircraft to approach $15 billion in yearly revenue.
Joby has currently built five aircraft, with 12 more in production, meaning the gap between today’s output and the scale required for a $64 billion valuation is substantial.
At a production rate of 1,000 eVTOL vehicles per year, Joby could reach a fleet of 7,500 in roughly 7.5 years, or closer to 15 years at 500 units annually.
A tenfold return, if it materialises at all, is likely to require a decade or more of sustained execution, regulatory progress, and aggressive fleet expansion.
Given the speculative nature of the business at this stage, Joby is best suited for investors who can commit to a long time horizon and absorb the risks that come with an early-stage aviation company.
For those without the patience or risk tolerance for that kind of long-term bet, there are other investment opportunities that demand fewer leaps of faith.
