Entain PLC (LSE:ENT) has revised its 2026 online net gaming revenue growth forecast down to a range of 4% to 6% following Brazil’s decision to ban online gambling.
The sports betting and gaming company is maintaining its underlying EBITDA guidance of £910 million to £960 million despite the market disruption caused by the ban.
Brazil published a provisional measure on Friday banning the operation and advertising of sports betting and online gaming, taking immediate effect across the sector.
Entain confirmed it is complying with the restriction while the longer-term regulatory outcome in the country remains uncertain.
The provisional measure must receive Congressional approval within 120 days to remain in force, leaving the market’s future status unresolved for now.
Entain expects its underlying EBITDA to come in towards the lower end of its £910 million to £960 million guidance range if the Brazilian ban remains in place for the rest of 2026.
Online net gaming revenue growth excluding Brazil remains on track for the top end of its 5% to 7% constant-currency guidance, the company noted.
Brazil was the third-largest regulated online market globally in its first year and was expected to grow at a high single-digit rate, compared with flat growth in the UK and low single-digit growth in Australia.
Jefferies, which rates both Flutter and Entain as ‘buy’, warned that the ban effectively shuts Brazil’s online market, with initial share-price reactions likely to precede a review of individual company exposures.
Jefferies sees greater risk to medium-term growth than to this year’s earnings, suggesting the longer-term consequences of the ban could weigh more heavily on sector valuations.
Flutter, the Paddy Power owner, has stopped operating in Brazil and expects a reduction of about $70 million in 2026 revenue and $20 million in EBITDA if the ban lasts the full year.
Brazil accounts for about 2% of Flutter’s group revenue and about 3% of Entain’s group revenue, while representing about 3% of Flutter’s international revenue and 5% of Entain’s online revenue.
Better Collective has also published lowered 2026 guidance, implying a 13% EBITDA downgrade at the midpoint, and has withdrawn its 2027 and 2028 guidance while suspending its share buyback program.
Brazil accounts for about 12% of Better Collective’s group revenue, making the ban a significantly larger operational challenge for that company than for Entain or Flutter.
The wider context adds political complexity to the situation, as Brazil only regulated online betting in January 2025, generated $1.9 billion in tax revenue in the year to August, and is due to hold a presidential election on 4 October.
