Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB) touched a 52-week high of $151 in late May before retreating sharply to around $74, roughly 51% below that peak.
The stock closed above $100 as recently as early July, meaning a return to triple digits would be a rebound rather than a push into uncharted territory.
A move back to $100 would represent a gain of around 35% from current levels, or approximately 14% annually over just over two years.
Rocket Lab began August with around 598 million common shares outstanding, with September’s share sale adding another 29.3 million shares to the count.
When preferred shares and the expected Iridium Communications (NASDAQ: IRDM) share component of the acquisition are factored in, the total share count reaches approximately 700 million.
At $100 per share, that puts Rocket Lab’s market value near $70 billion, up from roughly $49 billion today before any Iridium shares are included.
That $49 billion valuation is already demanding for a company generating revenue at a rate of around $1 billion annually, placing the stock at over 40 times sales.
Contracted work provides some foundation for optimism, as Rocket Lab closed June with a record backlog of $2.36 billion, up 137% year over year.
Around 45% of that backlog is expected to convert to revenue within the next 12 months, with roughly $1.4 billion sitting in the space systems segment.
Second-quarter revenue hit a record $234 million, up 62% year over year, with space systems contributing $189.5 million, or about 81% of the total.
CEO Sir Peter Beck noted that the company had already entered into over $1 billion of new contracts across launch and space systems in the third quarter alone, including options.
Neutron, Rocket Lab’s larger reusable rocket designed to compete directly with SpaceX, remains central to the bull case for the stock reaching $100.
The company targets bringing Neutron to its launch pad in the fourth quarter of 2026, though its latest quarterly filing noted the window for a year-end launch is shrinking.
Demand for Neutron is already forming, with five dedicated launches signed in the first quarter and a Space Force contract worth up to $397 million tied to spacecraft intended to launch on the vehicle.
The company’s total launch backlog tops 90 missions, giving Neutron a ready pipeline if it can successfully debut and achieve a regular flight cadence through 2028.
Profitability remains a work in progress, as second-quarter adjusted EBITDA showed a loss of $8.8 million, though that improved from a $27.6 million loss in the year-ago quarter.
Guidance calls for the adjusted EBITDA loss to widen again this quarter, to between $17 million and $23 million, adding pressure to the growth story.
If revenue roughly triples to around $3 billion by 2028, combining organic growth with a full year of Iridium’s approximately $872 million in 2025 revenue, a $70 billion valuation would sit around 23 times sales.
The Iridium deal itself is not expected to close until mid-2027, meaning execution risk remains significant across both the acquisition and Neutron’s development timeline.
While the conditions for RKLB reaching $100 are demanding, a substantial share of the revenue needed to justify that price is already sitting under contract in the backlog.
