SpaceX, trading on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX, made waves as arguably the hottest initial public offering of the year, drawing enormous investor demand at launch.
Despite that excitement, the stock has underperformed since its debut, currently trading at $148, just 10% above its IPO price of $135.
That figure also sits below the first-day opening price of $150, leaving many investors who bought at the open sitting on losses of nearly 8%.
Wall Street remains broadly optimistic, however, with a median analyst price target of $217, representing a 46% upside from current levels.
SpaceX’s revenue growth was modest leading into its IPO, but its first quarter as a public company told a very different story for investors.
Total revenue surged 92% year over year in the second quarter, driven by strength across all business segments, with its artificial intelligence unit xAI leading the charge.
xAI is simultaneously SpaceX’s fastest-growing segment and its largest source of losses, though total losses were cut nearly in half, falling from $1 billion to $541 million year over year.
The AI division recently secured significant deals with Alphabet and Anthropic for data center rentals, signaling growing institutional confidence in the unit’s commercial potential.
Wall Street expects SpaceX’s sales to increase 156% in 2027, which would represent an acceleration beyond the company’s already impressive current growth trajectory.
Using a 50% compound annual growth rate through 2030 and a price-to-sales ratio of 34, analysts project revenue could reach $157 billion with a market cap of approximately $5.5 trillion.
Under that scenario, a $5,000 investment made today would grow to approximately $13,850 by 2030, representing a return of 177% over roughly five years.
More aggressive growth assumptions produce even larger figures, though a 75% CAGR producing a $15 trillion market cap is widely considered highly unlikely by most analysts.
SpaceX currently trades at 68 times trailing-12-month sales, a premium valuation that may prove difficult to sustain if growth rates begin to moderate over time.
Investors should weigh these projections carefully, as the company faces meaningful risks, particularly around the long-term profitability and scalability of its xAI business segment.
