Torrential rainfall and weak consumer confidence in China weighed heavily on Carlsberg A/S (CABGY) during the third quarter, yet the brewer still managed to outperform analyst expectations on revenue.
Soft drinks and alcohol-free products emerged as the unlikely heroes of the quarter, with volumes surging 9% and 11% respectively, cushioning the blow from a 3.5% decline in beer volumes.
China’s troubles ran deep, with beer volumes in that market contracting 7.9% as destocking pressures compounded the effects of an unusually wet June and July that disrupted peak-season consumption.
Across Asia as a whole, organic volumes fell 6.7% and revenues dropped 4.6%, both figures coming in worse than analyst forecasts and underscoring the scale of the regional challenge.
The damage in Asia stood in stark contrast to results elsewhere, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe and India, where combined volumes jumped 7.5% and revenue climbed 11.7% during the same period.
Western Europe also contributed positively, delivering organic volume growth of 0.3% and revenue expansion of 2.5%, which edged past the 2.0% consensus estimate analysts had pencilled in.
Total reported revenue reached DKK 25,281m for the quarter, a 4.9% increase that cleared the market consensus of DKK 25,096m, aided by a favourable currency swing and a 3% lift in revenue per hectoliter.
Group CEO Jacob Aarup-Andersen pointed to the portfolio’s breadth as the key stabilising force, saying “The Group delivered robust revenue growth in Q3, reflecting good momentum in many markets and the resilience of our multi-beverage portfolio, which more than compensated for the challenging trading environment in China.”
Beyond the quarterly numbers, Carlsberg used the update to highlight a geographic expansion of its strategic alliance with PepsiCo, with the partnership now extending into Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia.
Aarup-Andersen described the move as building a foundation for broader regional ambitions, noting: “We further strengthened our strategic partnership with PepsiCo by expanding our collaboration into Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia, providing a strong platform to further develop a multi-beverage portfolio across the region.”
On the financial outlook, Carlsberg held firm on its 2026 guidance for organic operating profit growth of between 4% and 6%, anchored to a 2025 operating profit base of DKK 13,686m.
One meaningful revision accompanied the maintained guidance, with the company now forecasting a positive currency translation impact of approximately DKK 100m on operating profit for 2026, reversing its earlier assumption of no currency effect.
Premium beer volumes slipped 3% during the quarter, adding another layer of concern for investors watching whether Carlsberg’s higher-margin segment can regain traction as Chinese consumer sentiment recovers.
