Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS) has emerged as one of the standout performers in the AI cloud sector, with its share price surging 110% over the past 12 months.
The company operates as a “neocloud” provider, deploying thousands of GPUs across data centers to remotely process AI workloads for tech companies.
Nebius currently operates four data centers across Finland, Iceland, and the United States, with plans to open 14 additional facilities in the near future.
Demand for neocloud services has accelerated sharply, and Nebius is capitalizing directly on that momentum with a rapidly growing contract backlog.
The company signed four contracts in the second quarter of 2026, each averaging more than $1 billion, pushing its total backlog commitments beyond $40 billion.
Research firm Gartner estimates that neocloud providers could capture 20% of the $267 billion AI cloud market by 2030, a figure that bodes well for Nebius and its competitors.
Nebius reported revenue growth of 351% in 2025, reaching $530 million, before surging another 529% year over year to $981 million in the first half of 2026.
Its adjusted EBITDA swung from negative $75 million to positive $366 million, delivering an adjusted EBITDA margin of 37% in that same period.
Nebius shares opened at $14.29 on their first trading day and closed at a record high of $286.69 on June 18, 2026, turning a $1,000 investment into more than $20,000 in under two years.
The stock currently trades at around $220, and analysts project full-year revenue will surge 530% to $3.3 billion before jumping 268% to $12.3 billion in 2027.
Analysts also forecast adjusted EBITDA rising 378% to $6.6 billion in 2027, then climbing a further 106% to $13.6 billion in 2028 as the company scales its infrastructure.
The company expects its annualized revenue run rate to reach between $7 billion and $9 billion by the end of 2026, reflecting the rapid conversion of backlog into realized sales.
To support that growth, Nebius plans to expand data center capacity from 170 MW at the end of 2025 to between 800 MW and 1 GW by the end of 2026.
However, management has guided capital expenditure to approximately $22.5 billion this year at the midpoint, more than five times last year’s spending level.
That aggressive capex figure, against projected sales of just over $3 billion this year, represents a key risk factor that potential investors should monitor closely.
On the bullish side, analysts suggest NBIS shares could double from current levels, potentially turning a $1,000 investment into $2,000 or more by 2030.
